The South African President overcame the eighth no confidence vote yesterday in the assembly, though there was a mountain of evidence against him in corruption, which emerged in his conduct in recent months.
This victory though could dub him a lucky survivor in politics, but it came with a huge cost for him and especially for his party African National Congress.
Many thought that these shreds of evidence against Zuma will be enough to persuade a sufficient number of the members of the ruling ANC to support an opposition-sponsored no confidence vote, to pull him down.
The evidence against Zuma, the so called #guptaleaks was thought to be enough to end his political career.
In the event, after a two-hour debate on the floor of the National Assembly, the motion fell short of the 201 votes required to remove Zuma and his cabinet. But yesterday was remarkably different. On the previous seven occasions that the opposition has tabled no confidence votes since Zuma’s power began in 2009, the ANC has remained steadfast in its support for its beleaguered president. Yesterday’s vote was a watershed for the liberation movement that brought an end to apartheid in 1994: around 30 of the 223 ANC MPs who voted yesterday sided with the opposition.
Zuma known for his streetwise political skills used this to secure the confidence of his party workers.
The Parliament for the first time in history allowed for a secret ballot for voting on the no confidence motion.
This move came after the judgment by the Constitutional Court in June which said that speaker of the National Assembly had the discretion to order a secret ballot in exceptional circumstances.
Afterward, it was a win-win situation for the opposition, one after another of the leaders of the opposition spoke cheerfully about the political future and of the health of South Africa’s democracy.
In the voting, 177 MPs voted for the motion, and 198 against (with 9 abstentions). Since the opposition has 151 MPs, at least three of whom were absent through illness, it means that that at least 29 and possibly as many as 35 ANC MPs jumped ship.
They may have lost the battle, but they feel confident that they will win the war. After all, it is clear that Zuma is now their greatest electoral asset, with several polls (including the respected Afrobarometer), showing that across race and class, trust in Zuma has collapsed since he was returned to power for a second term in 2014.
Last year, the ANC suffered its first major electoral setbacks since the advent of democracy in 1994 when it lost control of three major city governments in Pretoria, Johannesburg and Port Elizabeth. Now, it’s political management skills appear to be in disarray as factionalism and deep, painful divisions dominate internal party politics. This is all unfolding in the run-up to what is likely to be a bloody five-yearly national elective conference in December, at which the ANC will elect a new President of the party to succeed Zuma.
That may or may not mark the start of a new era of renewal for the ANC. But Zuma’s term as President of the country is only due to end in 2019. A lot more damage could be done to the country’s economy and its prospects for growth.
The consequence of that, however, is that the ANC will face the prospect of losing its majority in the national polls for the first time since Nelson Mandela’s historic victory in 1994.
The ConversationYesterday may have been a victory for Zuma. But in the longer term, it is likely to come to be seen as a major defeat for the ANC.
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