Gujarat Election Survey: will Congress overtake BJP?

The upcoming Gujarat election has the nation in a competitive spirit, with news channels running to inform the people of the latest news. Who will win?

Two opinion polls on Wednesday, just days before Gujarat votes for a new Assembly have given a clear edge to the BJP although Congress has succeeded in making some inroads lately. The improvement in the Congress tally is unlikely to help them regain power in the state where it has been out of power for over two decades.

According to the Times Now/VMR opinion poll, Congress will gain 39.8 percent vote share, that’s one percentage point more than 2012 where it got 38.8 percent vote share. The party is likely to win 68 seats, the opinion poll said.

The BJP, on the other hand, is likely to win 111 seats, four less than 2012 but way above the half-way mark of 92. The party is likely to get 44.8 percent vote share in 2017 which is a decline by 3 percent compared to last time, the Times Now/VMR opinion poll said.

The TV9/CVoter poll finds that the BJP will likely lose six seats and the Congress will likely gain 12 seats bringing their tally to 109 and 73 seats in the 182-seat Assembly respectively.

The poll, dividing Gujarat by region, predicted that the BJP will nab 36 seats in Central, 13 seats in North, 43 seats in Saurashtra and 17 seats in South. The Congress is predicted to win 27 seats in Central, 19 seats in North, 11 seats in Saurashtra and 16 seats in South. Other parties are predicted to win zero seats. The Congress is predicted to gain five seats in Central, two seats in the North, 10 seats in the South but lose five seats in Saurashtra. The BJP is predicted to lose three seats in Central, two seats in North, nine seats in the South but pick up eight seats in Saurashtra.

In 2012 election, the BJP won 115 seats and the Congress netted 61 seats in the state. Other parties netted six seats in the state.

Here’s the seat share as predicted by the survey.

Year	Region	INC	BJP	Others	Total
2012	Central	22	39	2	63
	North	17	15	0	32
	Saurashtra	16	35	3	54
	South	6	26	1	33
	Total	61	115	6	182

 

Year	Region	INC	BJP	Others	Total
2017	Central	27	36	0	63
	North	19	13	0	32
	Saurashtra	11	43	0	54
	South	16	17	0	33
	Total	73	109	0	182

 

Year	Region	INC	BJP	Others	Total
Swing	Central	5	-3	-2	0
	North	2	-2	0	0
	Saurashtra	-5	8	-3	0
	South	10	-9	-1	0
	Total	12	-6	-6	0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The opinion poll found that the Congress could get as much as 41.7 percent of the vote share across the state, however, the BJP will still be in the lead with a slim margin at 46.5 percent, despite the much-touted Patidar wave in certain pockets. The survey also showed that while the Congress vote share has gone up by roughly 2.9 percentage points, the BJP’s share of votes has come down by 1.3 percentage points. The share of Others remained more or less the same.

According to the survey, the Congress party could get the largest lead in South Gujarat where it vote share has improved by 7.5 percentage points as compared to 2012 results. The party however, could not make much impact in Saurashtra, where it’s vote share shows a growth of just 0.1 percentage points. However, unlike its rival BJP, the Congress does not suffer a decline in its vote share anywhere in Gujarat.

The BJP on the other hand has slipped by 1.3 percentage points as compared to 2012. The only region where it manages to retain its lead in vote share is the Saurashtra region, while it slipped  by eight percentage points—the largest decline—in South Gujarat, which has a sizeable presence of Muslims, Patidars and small traders, who were worst-hit by demonetisation and GST.

Here’s the vote share tally as predicted by the survey.

Year	Region	INC	BJP	Others	Total
2012	Central	39.4	50.2	10.4	100
	North	45.9	43.6	10.5	100
	Saurashtra	36.9	44.9	18.2	100
	South	37.3	52	10.7	100
	Total	38.8	47.8	13.4	100

Year	Region	INC	BJP	Others	Total
2017	Central	42.7	45.5	11.8	100
	North	47.2	42.2	10.7	100
	Saurashtra	37.1	49.2	13.7	100
	South	44.8	43.9	11.2	100
	Total	41.7	46.5	11.8	100

 

Year	Region	INC	BJP	Others	Total
Swing	Central	3.4	-4.7	1.4	100
	North	1.3	-1.5	0.2	100
	Saurashtra	0.1	4.3	-4.4	100
	South	7.5	-8.0	0.6	100
	Total	2.9	-1.3	-1.6	0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On Tuesday, an opinion poll conducted by Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News predicted that BJP is likely to win 91-99 seats while the Congress will bag 78-86 seats.

Earlier, Prime Minister Narendra Modi likened the imminent elevation of Rahul Gandhi to dynastic succession of Mughal rulers, and castigated the Congress for abandoning “public modesty” by deciding to make a person, who is out on bail in a graft case, its president.

The prime minister also targeted the Congress over corruption during its rule and spoke about the clean governance under him in Gujarat and at the Centre.

Modi said with the Congress deciding to make such a leader its president gave a glimpse of what culture the party will follow and the kind of leadership will emerge there in future.

Assembly elections in Gujarat will be held in two phases: On 9 and 14 December. The counting will take place on 18 December, the same day as Himachal Pradesh election.