The predictions are out, and if numbers are to be believed, the BJP will emerge as the single largest party in Gujarat, beating the caste-conscious Congress coalition by winning as many as 108 seats in the 182-member legislative assembly.
While it is highly unlikely that the Congress will make a comeback in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state, the party is expected to better its performance since the 2012 assembly election.
Live Blog: Exit poll of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh
BJP to return to power for fifth time in Gujarat: TOI Online-CVoter
Despite the Patidar unrest and spirited campaigning by the Congress, exit polls predict the BJP will retain its vote-share in Gujarat.
Soon after voting ended in the second and final phase of the Gujarat election, TOI Online-CVoter exit poll put the BJP’s vote share at 47.4 per cent (-0.4 per cent compared to 2012), while Congress is at 43.3 per cent (+4.5 per cent compared to 2012). But the Grand Old Party’s gains will not be enough to bridge the 9 per cent vote-share gap from 2012.
Watch: How Patidars are backing BJP after 30 years
Coming to the seat-share, TOI Online-CVoter predicts that the saffron party will lose 7 seats to finish at 108, while the Congress will gain 13 seats to consolidate its position with 74 members in the assembly.
Despite retaining power in the western state, the BJP has lost some of its appeal to the people, exit polls indicated. The saffron party will lose 3.5 per cent and 4.2 per cent of its vote share in central and south Gujarat respectively.
TOI Online-CVoter shows a swing of 5.7 per cent of the vote share in Saurashtra in the Congress party’s favour, as well as gains of 5.6 per cent and 3.7 per cent in south and central Gujarat respectively. On the other hand, the BJP will witness an overall loss of 0.4 per cent of the vote share in all four regions.
Similarly, the saffron party will lose 7 seats in south Gujarat and 2 seats in north Gujarat, the TOI Online-CVoter exit poll shows.
What other exit polls predicted
Times Now-VMR exit poll put the ruling BJP’s seat share comparatively higher at 115 seats, 64 seats for the Congress, and the remaining for other parties.
India Today-Axis My India predicts that the BJP will win only 11 of the 54 seats in the Saurashtra-Kachchh region and 9 out of 32 seats in north Gujarat.
The alliance with PAAS seems to have worked to the Congress party’s advantage, as data indicates that the party has posted a strong showing in central and south Gujarat, which has a significant Patidar population.
Furthermore, Today’s Chanakya exit poll shows that Congress will bag 81 per cent of the Muslim votes and 46 per cent of Scheduled Caste votes.
Post Your Comments