Crisis in Maldives; India looks on as China comes to play

On the 4^th of February the President of the Maldives, Yameen Abdul Gayoom, said that he was willing to hold an early presidential election to allow voters to decide who they want to lead the Indian Ocean archipelago, as political unrest continued to grow after a court ordered the release and retrial of political prisoners.

Abdulla Yameen has gone berserk in a last-ditch effort at self-preservation to fend off an opposition campaign for his ouster. Ordering the arrest of his half-brother and long-time former President Abdul Gayoom as also of the Chief Justice of the island country Abdulla Saeed and another apex court judge Ali Hameed while proclaiming a state of emergency, Yameen is desperately seeking to cling on to power against all odds.

The 15-day emergency decree issued late Monday by him gives the government sweeping powers to make arrests, search and seize property and restrict freedom of assembly. There is chaos on the streets of Male as Yameen finds himself increasingly isolated. With the US, UK, India and the United Nations arrayed against him and his arbitrary exercise of power, Yameen’s days are indeed numbered. His consolation is that China and Saudi Arabia are propping him up because they have much to gain from his continuance.

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Yameen’s refusal to follow the Supreme Court order reinstating and releasing nine lawmakers who had made common cause with the Opposition in seeking the ouster of Yameen and his imprisoning Abdul Gayoom and Abdulla Saeed have angered people at large but knowing the extent to which he can go, they are waiting for the right moment.

Predictably, it would be a herculean task for him to ward off opposition to his regime for long. Tourism, which is Maldives’ main revenue-earner has virtually come to a standstill with the turmoil thinning down tourist arrivals and advisories being issued for tourists by various countries to avoid going to the Maldives.

Yameen had come to power in 2013 after a controversial election necessitated by the forced resignation of Mohamed Nasheed who was the first democratically-elected President in the country. That Nasheed has consistently been well disposed towards India and inimical towards China has been amply clear all along. Soon after his ‘resignation’, he had taken refuge in the Indian embassy in the Maldivian capital of Male, fearing arrest. Even now, he is constantly imploring India to pull the Maldives out of Yameen’s control and to restore the rule of law.

The first signs of Yameen’s nexus with China emerged when an agreement signed by India’s GMR Infrastructure under Nasheed’s tenure for upgrading Male airport was abruptly terminated by his successor in November 2012. The contract was subsequently awarded to a state-owned Chinese company.

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It is a measure of India’s weak-kneed and muddled policy that it failed to arrest its declining influence in the Maldives and to prevent Yameen from landing in China’s lap. India’s unmatched clout in the island nation was replaced by Chinese hegemony as India looked on.

If India fails to exert its influence to neutralize Yameen, it would be psychologically giving in to China which has established more than a foothold in the country. In the eyes of Maldivians and of other nationalities in the region, India would stand devalued at the expense of Beijing and its claim to being a regional power would stand severely compromised.

In December last, Maldives and China signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) during Yameen’s visit to Beijing, through which the Maldives became the second country in Asia to sign such an agreement with China after Pakistan. It was also Maldives’ first with any country.

In addition to the FTA, Maldives signed a Memorandum of Understanding that brings it into the Maritime Silk Road, a component of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This was a trump card for Beijing which has been leaving no stone unturned in its endeavor to control the sea lanes in this sector as in other sectors.

An archipelago of around 1,200 islands in the Indian Ocean, Maldives’ strategic significance indeed lies in its proximity to international sea lanes through which two-thirds of the world’s oil and half its container shipments pass. The Maldives is also located just 700 km from India’s Lakshadweep island chain and around 1,200 km from the Indian mainland, making it strategically important for India.

Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the archipelago in September 2014. Since then, China’s presence, especially in Maldives’ tourism sector and infrastructure building, has expanded. It has replaced Europe as Maldives’ largest source of tourists. China is funding and building mega infrastructure projects, including the Friendship Bridge linking Male to Hulhule Island and a 1,000-apartment housing project on Hulhumale, a suburb built on reclaimed land.

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While China is bent upon converting the Maldives into a vassal state, Maldives is in the process of ‘selling’ an atoll to Saudi Arabia which will allow that country to establish a toehold in the island. More than 70% of Maldives’ foreign debt is owed to Beijing and Maldives is falling deeper and deeper into debt. Maldives’ imports from China now exceed those from India and Beijing has also become the Yameen government’s biggest lender.

It was during Yameen’s rule that a constitutional amendment allowing foreign ownership of freehold land was passed in 2015. That could open the gates for greater Chinese military presence. It is no secret that Chinese naval ships have become regular visitors to Male.

India has wasted too much time in not adopting a pro-active attitude towards the Yameen-ruled Maldives. It must act now by wringing the Yameen government’s arm to ensure that he restores the reinstatement of nine lawmakers that the Supreme Court had ordered and releases ex-president Gayoom and the two detained judges including the chief justice forthwith.

Fresh elections must be ordered and curbs on Opposition leaders must be removed. Any military action that India decided to take must be coordinated with the US and UK which are on the same page as India. But action must come forthwith lest the Maldivians blame India for failing to rescue them from a China-obsessed Yameen.