Lok Sabha Polls 2019 : Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance to touch 300 mark,says IANS-CVoter survey

An opinion poll based on pre-poll alliances conducted by CVoter for IANS shows that Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance is likely to garner 42 per cent of the vote in the Lok Sabha elections 2019, while for the Congress-led UPA alliance the vote percentage would be 30.4 per cent.

The opinion poll released on March 24 was based on a sample survey of 10,280 this week, and a cumulative base of 70,000 respondents since January 1.

The survey shows that the multiple allies in the NDA camp is banking on the BJP’s narrative on nationalism to deliver the elections for it. Although, there is an attempt in the NDA government to look into the increasing employment opportunities, alleviation of farm distress and economic growth, nationalism has always been its mainstay.The NDA includes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Shiv Sena, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), the AIADMK, the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), the Paattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and other regional parties.

The UPA comprises the Congress, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), the National Conference (NC), the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and other smaller parties.

Vote share projections:

In Uttar Pradesh, India’s politically most important state with 80 Lok Sabha seats, the NDA is likely to get 35.4 per cent of the vote which is far fewer seats compared to 2014 as indicated by the CVoter opinion poll.

In Bihar, the NDA’s vote share is expected to be 52.6 per cent and in Rajasthan, it is expected to get 50.7 per cent of the vote while in Gujarat, the NDA will get 58.2 per cent of the vote share.

In Maharashtra, the NDA is likely to garner 48.1 per cent of vote share while in Haryana, the NDA could get 42.6 per cent of the vote share.

Seat share projections:

The seat share projections for the NDA, based on pre-poll alliances, indicates it will fall short of a House majority with 261 seats — the March 10 opinion poll said it had put this number at 264. The second survey shows that the BJP will get 241 seats on its own. The UPA, however, could fall way behind the NDA in seat share projections. However, the surge from post poll alliances would push it well above the majority mark of 272.