An analysis carried out by an online media claims that the BJP will lose around 40 seats in Uttar Pradesh. BJP which has won 71 seats out of 80 seats in the state. This becomes very crucial for its whopping victory which the party claimed last general election.
The wire which made this study used the Election Commission’s voting data and supplemented it with data from the website pollniti.com. They have analysed the voting pattern on the 2014 general election and 2017 assembly elections.
The study claims that the rising unemployment of the youth, the distress in the agricultural sector, the precarious lives of the informal sector workers, plague the BJP. Also, the misadventures of demonetisation and the hurriedly implemented GST, both of which inflicted enormous costs on the ordinary citizen, will also affect voting. Also, the grand alliance of opposition parties in the state will also challenge BJP in securing victory.
The BJP’s spectacular victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections relied on stunning victories in the ten states of the Hindi heartland – Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh. The BJP won 190 of the 225 Lok Sabha seats in these states, virtually ensuring the success of its bid for power at the Centre.
Deepankar Basu, an associate professor in the Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst and Debarshi Das, an associate professor in the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, carried out the study.
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