The South Asian members of the group should be GDP standouts as they’ll together account for about one-fifth of the world’s population by 2030, Standard Chartered reckons. The demographic dividend will be a boon for India, while Bangladesh’s investments in health and education should juice productivity.
The Asian dominance of the list is a change from 2010, when the bank first started tracking the economies it expected to grow by around 7%. Back then, there were 10 members evenly split between Asia and Africa: China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, and Mozambique.
China is a notable absence from the latest ranking after being a member of the club for almost four decades — reflecting both a slowdown in economic growth and a progression toward higher per-capita incomes that makes faster growth rates more difficult to sustain. Standard Chartered estimates the world’s No. 2 economy will keep up a 5.5% economic growth pace in the 2020s.
Sub-Saharan African countries also have faded, which the analysts attribute to ‘waning reform momentum, despite a slowdown in commodity prices.’
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