India has recorded over 200 new infections daily, for six days. But New Delhi is unable to take its eyes off the border with China, as China is using the pandemic in India to keep the border stand-off sound and to accept the status quo. Essentially, China is walking away from withdrawal.
Talks between the countries have delayed, no movement and no pullback has taken place at the border and after a promising start. China seems reluctant to discuss disengagement any further. In February this year, both India and China had agreed to disengage at Pangong Tso – the long and narrow lake in Ladakh which was one of the flashpoints in the standoff. Disengagement was built in 10 days after both militaries moved back to their respective sides.
A four-kilometre long defence zone was created, and patrols to the Line of Actual Control were halted temporarily.
What about the other flashpoints?
In February, India and China agreed to keep talking about other flashpoints. But now China denies disengaging any more. Hot Springs, Gogra Post and Depsang Plains are the other flashpoints. As per the reports, China had earlier agreed to pull back troops from here. But not anymore.
One of the reports says China still has detachment level strength with vehicles in at least two areas – Hot Springs and the Gogra Post. A detachment is a military unit that is usually made up of two or more squads of troops. As per the reports, China has at least 60 soldiers in the Gogra-Hot Springs area.
Till now, India and China have held 11 rounds of military-level talks. The last one was on April 9 and is supposed that during that round China acted as if it is no longer interested in discussing the border controversy.
According to the reports, the Chinese told the Indian side that they should “be happy with what has been achieved”.
What triggered this shift?
At first, as per the reports, China wanted both sides to first de-escalate, then disengage. China needed a pullback of additional troops first, removal of the back-up, and then disengagement at the frontline. India denied because this situation would have worked in China’s support. It can move its troops much faster than India, for it has a better foundation on the Chinese side.
If both sides pull back additional troops and there’s another dispute, Chinese support will reach much faster than Indian support, weakening India’s border defences. One examiner believes that stresses can increase, for the lack of progress in talks, the arrival of summer, and the US drive to strengthen ties with China’s neighbours.
China could already be increasing border deployments. As per the reports, China has used a long-range rocket launcher as “a deterrent to India”. An advanced system is used 17,000 feet above sea level in Xinjiang, which shares a border with India. China has not only used a rocket launcher close to the border, but it also conducting drills.
The last round of talks ended without a joint statement and India is still looking for a strategic solution but it may not be easy. After September last year, India and China have been issuing joint statements to play up the prospect of withdrawal. This time, they did not. Rather, New Delhi did some straight talking.
On Monday, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar spoke about the standoff and said that China brought large force to the border without provocations. He added that India must “have a return to peace and tranquillity on border, and there are no two ways about it”.
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