Active cases in the ongoing second COVID-19 wave in India may peak at 38-48 lakh between May 14-18 and daily new infections could hit a high of 4.4 lakh from May 4-8, according to a mathematical model by IIT scientists who have revised their projections upwards.
As per health ministry data, 3,23,144 new COVID-19 cases and 2,771 deaths were registered over the last 24 hours, with the national Cumulative Fatality Rate (CFR) currently at 1.12 per cent. India’s total active caseload has reached 28,82,204, with a net incline of 68,546 cases recorded from the total active caseload in the last 24 hours. It now comprises 16.34 per cent of the country’s total positive cases.
The cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered in the country has crossed 14.5 crore after the 101 days of the country’s vaccination drive.
As per report, the scientists from the Indian Institute of Technology in Kanpur and Hyderabad applied the Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach’ (SUTRA) model to predict that active cases would go up further by over 10 lakh by mid-May. The latest projection tweaks the time frame as well as the numbers.
Last week, the researchers predicted the pandemic may peak between May 11-15 with 33-35 lakh total active cases and decline steeply by the end of May. Earlier this month, their modelling approach projected that active infections in the country would peak by April 15, which didn’t come true.
On Sunday, Maninder Agrawal, professor at the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, IIT-Kanpur had shared the new peak values for active and new COVID cases in a Twitter thread: Peak timing: May 14-18 for active infections and May 4-8 for new infections. Peak value: 38-48 lakhs for active infections and 3.4 to 4.4 lakhs for new infections.
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