‘Third wave could hit its peak on October’, says govt panel

New Delhi: As concerns grow over the possible outbreak of the third wave of coronavirus in India, a scientist who’s tasked with modeling Covid-19 cases said it may reach its peak between October and November. He noted that the situation could occur if Covid-appropriate behavior is not followed, but, half the daily cases that were reported during the second surge may be reported during the third wave.

According to Manindra Agarwal, who is working on the Sutra Model — a mathematical model of Covid-19’s trajectory — the coronavirus infection can spread faster during the third wave if a virulent variant of SARS-CoV-2 shows up. He said that this time, the loss of immunity, the effects of vaccination and a more virulent variant have been considered, unlike when the second wave was modeled.

‘We have created three scenarios. One is optimistic, where we assume that life goes back to normal by August and there is no new mutant. Another is intermediate wherein we assume that vaccination is 20 percent less effective in addition to optimistic scenario assumptions. The final one is pessimistic with assumptions different from the intermediate one: a new 25 percent more infectious mutant spreads in August (it is not Delta plus, which is not more infectious than Delta variant),’ Agarwal said.

According to Manindra Agarwal, the third wave could result in daily COVID-19 cases rising between 1,50,000 and 2,000,000 in India. This figure, however, is less than half of what was recorded when the second wave peaked in May, which caused hospitals to flood with patients and caused thousands of deaths per day.

‘If a new mutant emerges, the third wave could spread rapidly, but it will be half of what the second wave was. Delta variant is infecting people who contracted a different variant earlier. So this has been taken into consideration,’ the scientist said. Additionally, he said that as vaccination progresses, the likelihood of a third or fourth wave will decrease.

A member of the COVID-19 panel, M Vidyasagar, said the number of people getting hospitalized is expected to decrease during the third wave of COVID-19. For instance, the United Kingdom experienced more than 60,000 cases in January, with daily deaths exceeding 1,200. During the fourth wave, the number of cases dropped to 21,000 and just 14 deaths occurred.

‘Vaccination played a major role in bringing down the cases that needed hospitalization in the UK. This has been factored in while coming out with the three scenarios,’ Vidyasagar said.

The Department of Science and Technology formed the panel in 2020 to forecast the surge of COVID-19 cases using mathematical models. In addition to Agarwal, an IIT-Kanpur scientist, and Vidyasagar, an IIT-Hyderabad scientist, the panel includes Lt Gen Madhuri Kanitkar, Deputy Chief (Medical) of Integrated Defence Staff.