With the onset of the third wave of the viral infection in August, ‘sometime towards the end,’ a senior scientist at the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has predicted that India will see nearly 1 lakh cases every single day. ‘In the current situation, if the virus doesn’t mutate to lead to more transmissibility, the situation will be similar to the first wave,’ Professor Samiran Panda told. ‘If the virus mutates further, then the situation could be worse,’ he added.
Professor Panda is head of the division of epidemiology and communicable diseases at the ICMR.
When asked about the plausibility of such a prediction, he said that mathematical modelling by the ICMR and Imperial College London has shown that low vaccination rates and loosening restrictions will lead to an increase in Covid-19 cases. This wave, however, may not be as severe as the second. ‘Without vaccinations getting ramped up and when restrictions are eased, there will be a chance of the third wave,’ Prof Panda said.
Professor Panda is also a co-author of an ICMR study titled, ‘Plausibility of a Third Wave of Covid-19 in India: A Mathematical Model-Based Analysis.’ The study was conducted by the ICMR in collaboration with Imperial College London’s School of Public Health.
The study, which was published in the peer-reviewed Indian Journal of Medical Research, demonstrated plausible mechanisms for a significant third wave, while also demonstrating that any such resurgence would be unlikely to be as large as the second wave. ‘Given the current situation, it’s reasonable to expect a third wave,’ Prof Panda said.
Non-pharmacological interventions, such as avoiding large gatherings and wearing masks, will aid in containing the spread of the infection, Panda added.
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