‘Break monsoon’ phase likely to continue in national capital till Aug 18

New Delhi: It is likely that the ‘break monsoon’ phase will continue in Delhi and adjoining areas in northwest India till August 18, and ‘good rainfall’ in the last 10 days of the month will help cover the precipitation deficit in the capital, weather forecasters said on Saturday.

According to the India Meteorological Department, the Safdarjung Observatory has recorded a meager 63.2mm rainfall in August so far compared to the normal of 123.1 mm — a shortfall of 49 percent. The capital usually receives 247.7mm of rainfall in August. IMD had previously predicted normal rainfall for Delhi this month.

The ‘break monsoon’ phase, the second of this season, started on August 10 and is expected to last till August 18, according to Mahesh Palawat, vice president (meteorology and climate change) at Skymet Weather. The ‘break monsoon’ lasted longer than expected because there was no favorable weather system that would have pushed the monsoon trough south from the foothills of the Himalayas.

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‘However, a low-pressure system is developing in the Bay of Bengal. It will travel in the west direction to south Madhya Pradesh and pull the monsoon trough, leading to rains in Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh from August 19,’ Mr. Palawat said.

During the last 10 days of August, ‘good rainfall’ is expected to cover the shortfall, but the monthly precipitation is not likely to reach 247.7mm as it has in past months. There are times during the monsoon season when the monsoon trough shifts closer to the Himalayan foothills, which results in a sharp reduction in rainfall over many regions of the country. There is, however, more rainfall in the foothills of Himalayas, in the northeast part of India and on parts of the southern peninsula.

The monsoon began breaking in July even before reaching most parts of northwest India, including Delhi. The capital had recorded an unusually high rainfall of 507.1 mm in July, which was 141 percent above normal. Also, it was the highest rainfall in a month since July 2003, and the second-highest in history. With the intensive bursts of rain in July, the capital has seen 605.1mm rainfall in the three months since June 1, when monsoon season began — a 52 percent increase over the normal.