As a weakling in the Maha Vikas Aghadi, the Congress has had an opportunity to flex its muscles due to the local body by-poll results in six districts. The century-old party, contrary to expectations, gave the single-largest party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a neck-to-neck fight, winning the most votes among the MVA partners. As a matter of fact, it won more seats in the panchayat samitis than the BJP, despite falling short of a few in the Zilla parishads.
In terms of non-starters, Zilla parishads are larger than panchayats. In both segments, where the Congress has fought against the BJP and its MVA allies, the Congress has maintained seats and won some more than in the regular polls that were held after the MVA came to power in a dramatic fashion to stop the BJP. In the six districts, the by-election results did not shift the power equation but generated concerns for the BJP, which will be looking to retain its majority in local bodies when it returns to power next year.
With its biggest losses in the past seven years in Maharashtra, where it began and flourished to make successive governments in the Centre and state for decades, the Congress is confident and likely to become more aggressive as far as the BJP and its ruling partners are concerned. Though the MVA got an unbeatable number of seats in the bypolls, it is likely that Congress will not join hands with the ruling coalition in 2019, when 23 of 27 municipal corporations, 27 of 36 Zilla parishads, 300 of 362 municipal panchayats, and more than 290 panchayats go to polls. If the party really wants to grow and recover lost pride, there will be selective alliances, say party seniors who have been advocating fighting independent of MVA allies. Congress leaders feel that neither the opposition nor the ruling partners can take them for granted anymore.
The disintegration of the MVA in the Mini-Assembly polls would mean an advantage for the BJP, though it may be treading on slippery ground in some places due to local factors and internal fighting. The party lost seats in the recent by-election because warring loyalists and turncoats did not call a truce. BJP infighting is likely to dominate next year’s bigger canvas. The BJP has drawn its daggers and is intent on settling scores with its rivals, whether they are ‘original’ or ‘exports’. The BJP has been customizing its design for local bodies in perpetual election mode. Making it all-proof is not possible, as long as the party doesn’t get a sense of what might be in store when the contests are decided and fought.
Shiv Sena, the state’s leading party, did not gain much from the ZPs, but the Samitis did. A BJP statement blamed the Sena for allowing the gains (by making a tripartite government) for the other two partners, especially the Congress, which Narendra Modi has sworn to vanquish from Indian politics. As a result of the results, Congress predicts its resurgence, since the people believe Congress is the only one capable of taking on the BJP. Sena has already decided to go solo where it doesn’t need crutches.
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The battleground is set for the contending parties vying to tame the voters. However, the BJP has made an exception in the bypolls and is hoping to repeat the feat next year. The Supreme Court’s decision to scrap the other backward class (OBC) quota necessitated the bypolls. While the contests were in the open category, only OBC candidates were fielded by the parties. If the ordinances that have been promulgated to restore the OBC quota do not meet with lawsuits, the issue will be resolved.
There will be a redrawing of civic wards in the municipal corporations, except in Mumbai. Since the local governments had already begun restructuring to make it a one-member ward system, it is expected to take some time. An important factor that holds the key to not delay the elections scheduled for the first half of 2022 will be the improvement in the Covid-19 situation, especially in the urban areas that are experiencing a large number of positive cases, even though a third wave threat still looms large.
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