A new study report published by the United Nations revealed that extreme wildfires will become more often, increasing by about 50 percent by the end of the century.
According to the analysis, there is an increased risk in the Arctic and other formerly unaffected areas.
Extreme fires are defined by scientists as remarkable conflagrations that occur around once every hundred years.
Researchers believe that rising temperatures and changes in land use will cause the growth.
The new report argues for a fundamental shift in financial resources from firefighting to prevention.
According to UNEP experts, big fires that burn for weeks are already increasing hotter and burning longer in many places of the world where wildfires have always happened.
They are, however, starting to appear in far northern locations, drying peatlands, and thawing permafrost.
According to the newest analysis, there would be a global increase in intense flames of up to 14% by 2030, compared to the number reported from 2010 to 2020. The rise could reach 30% by 2050 and 50% by the end of the century.
“The research was based on the definition of a catastrophic fire occurring once every 100 years, so it’s a very low frequency fire event,” said Dr Andrew Sullivan of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Canberra, Australia.
“As a result of the global examination of fire frequency, the potential for that type of fire increased by a factor of 1.3 to 1.5 times.”
In both the low and high carbon emissions scenarios, the results were comparable.
The study defines extreme conflagrations as “exceptional or unusual fires,” although this definition varies greatly depending on where you live.
‘Imagine a peat fire spreading at centimetres per hour in the Arctic. It’s not necessarily a blazing inferno, but it’s odd and growing across vast distances since no one is there to put a stop to it’ Dr. Sullivan stated.
‘A fire like this in the peatlands is extreme, but it’s not what you’d expect an extreme fire to be if you lived in California.’
Even though the study mainly forecasts extreme events, the authors anticipate that less severe wildfires would increase as land use changes and populations grow. This might have serious consequences for climate change because the additional burning will increase the amount of carbon discharged into the atmosphere.
However, the frequency change will vary depending on a number of local conditions. Because climate change is having such a significant impact on the Arctic, the globe is likely to see more fires in the region.
However, in Africa, where almost two-thirds of the world’s wildfires already occur, fewer flames are projected to occur in the next decades as a growing population clears more forest areas for cultivation.
“The number of fires in Africa is reducing due to changes in land use and agricultural intensification,” said Dr Glynis Humphrey of the University of Cape Town.
“Because of the drop in fuel load, our percentage of land burned is actually reducing, and our fires are growing smaller and smaller.”
The authors are urging governments to reconsider their approach to spending on major fires.
According to the report, planning and prevention currently receive less than 1% of financing, while firefighting consumes half of the available budget.
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