New Delhi: Researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur (IIT-K) warned that the country may witness fourth wave of Covid-19 in June this year. As per the team the fourth wave may set in around June 22 in the country and it may last for four months.
The research team lead by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh of IIT Kanpur’s Mathametic department predicted that the severity of fourth wave will depend on the emergence of new variants, vaccination status, and administration of booster doses. The study has been published as a pre-print in MedRxiv and is yet to be peer-reviewed.
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‘The fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022 and ends on October 24, 2022. Moreover, the 99% confidence interval for the date, when the curve will reach the peak, is approximately from August 15, 2022 to August 31, 2022… The intensity of the impact will depend on various factors like infectibility, fatality etc’, said the researchers . As per them, the fourth wave of Covid-19 in India will arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020.
The research team used ‘Bootstrap’ methodology for the study. According to the researches, the method can also be used to forecast a fourth and other waves in other countries as well.
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