The ‘deciding factor’ of Muslim votes in UP became irrelevant

Muslim community support, which accounts for nearly a quarter of UP’s population, was once viewed as vital for forming the government. But not anymore. This time, the Samajwadi Party leads in 40 of the 57 Muslim-majority seats, and Rashtriya Lok Dal in two. Muslim seats fell from 37 to 15 last time for the BJP, which is heading towards a big majority. However, this did not affect its prospects.

For the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP began targeting OBC (other backward classes) and MBC (most backward classes) voters. Minorities were marginalized electorally. There was not a single Muslim MP elected. As of the next assembly election in 2017, there were only 25 Muslim MLAs. From 68 in 2012, it was the lowest number ever in the UP assembly and, possibly, polarized politics.

What happened to the Muslim vote?

SP, historically a prominent supporter of Muslim welfare, no longer showed how many Muslim candidates they had fielded. From the Dalit-Muslim combination to the Dalit-Brahmin alignment, BSP has shifted its social engineering focus. There is no community-specific promise in the manifestos of the major opposition players. Political observers said that given the current political situation, silence might be preferable to speech. Many Muslims agree. Better not to give a handle to BJP to polarise the election.

‘This is probably the reason why the BJP was unable to raise any communal issues, such as the kabristan versus shamshaan debate in the past,’ said Imran Asad, an entrepreneur from Bhadohi. Narendra Modi had said at a BJP rally in Fatehpur that if a village built a graveyard (kabristan), it should build a crematorium (shamshaan) as well.

Procession and raising demands during elections are detrimental to the community. ‘The people are quiet, but they talk and discuss. I have tried to convince people that social bonds are important and so is unity,’ said Arif, a noted historian and social thinker, referring to the practice of political parties fielding dummy Muslim candidates to divide minority votes in constituencies with substantial Muslim populations.

It’s about secularism, not just Muslims

Muslim community leaders insist that it is not just about Muslims. Maulana Ashhad Rashidi, the state chief of Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind (JuH), said, ‘in a democracy like India, it is not about keeping a community together, but about ensuring that the secular vote remains undivided’. He said JuH had been urging ‘secular voters’ to vote together.

All political parties have been treating Muslims as a separate group and discussing the community’s problems separately. It created an image that Muslims were being treated differently despite having the same problems as the rest of the population The All India Majlis-e-Ittihadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), for instance, positions itself as a Muslim-majority party. How does that affect its chances?

Asaduddin Owaisi ran candidates in 100 seats this time. Community leaders said they think it would have some impact, but not enough to change equations. Arif said, ‘Owaisi is drawing crowds … and can disturb the arithmetic of major players in some places. But I don’t think it will have a major impact’.

According to a Muslim government official who did not want to be identified, “In Kushinagar, an influential local Muslim entrepreneur announced his candidacy. After local community leaders asked if he was a serious contender, he realized that he was more likely to divide the Muslim vote than to win the seat due to caste equations and the popularity of the other candidates. He decided not to run.  To make the Muslim vote matter, community leaders are encouraging Muslims to vote.

Shia cleric Maulana Saif Abbas said community leaders have formed a UP Democratic Forum comprising top national-level organizations like Jamiat-ul-Hindut, Jamat-e-Islami, and the All India Milli Council to prioritize seats with a sizable Muslim population for the purpose of encouraging them to vote.