Senior US officials say they have not detected overt Chinese military and economic support, two months after warning that Beijing appeared set to assist Russia in its fight against Ukraine, a good development in the fragile US-China relationship.
Officials from the United States have told Reuters in recent days that they are still concerned about China’s long-standing support for Russia in general, but that the military and economic backing that they were concerned about has not materialised, at least for the time being. The respite arrives at a critical juncture.
President Joe Biden is planning a trip to Asia later this month that will be dominated by discussions about how to deal with China’s ascent, and his government will shortly announce its first national security strategy on China’s rise as a great power.
China has avoided new contracts between its state oil refiners and Russia, despite huge discounts, in addition to not directly supporting Russia’s war effort.
Sinopec Group, the state-owned company, halted talks in March about a substantial petrochemical investment and a gas marketing cooperation in Russia.
Last month, the US representative to the UN praised China’s abstentions on UN votes condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a ‘victory,’ highlighting how Beijing’s compelled balancing act between Russia and the West may be the best conclusion for Washington.
Despite this, China has declined to condemn Russia’s activities in Ukraine and has attacked the sweeping Western sanctions against Moscow, while claiming that it is not purposefully assisting in their circumvention.
In the first quarter, trade volume between Russia and China increased, and the two countries established a ‘no limits’ alliance in February.
The Washington embassy in Beijing issued a 30-page newsletter on Monday accusing the US of spreading ‘falsehoods’ to undermine China over Ukraine, including a March press leak claiming Russia had sought Chinese military assistance. According to the embassy, US officials have since stated that they have seen no proof of China offering such assistance.
Since telling reporters in Brussels on March 24 that he ‘made sure he understood the repercussions’ in a phone discussion with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Biden has not mentioned China assisting Russia.
Last week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that China faces a ‘major reputational cost’ as a Russian partner and that ‘for now, we’re not seeing strong support from China for Russia’s military actions.’
Biden will travel to Tokyo and Seoul on his first trip to Asia as president, which will be his first trip to Asia without a stop in China. During a ‘Quad’ meeting in Tokyo, he’ll also meet with leaders from India and Australia.
To oppose the West, China has made Russia a crucial pillar of its foreign policy plan. According to one US official, Biden aides were concerned that Xi was intending to lend direct support to Russian President Vladimir Putin as his campaign in Ukraine faced severe setbacks.
They’re relieved that this hasn’t happened yet, but Washington and its partners are keeping a careful eye on the extent of support, according to the official.
According to Bonnie Glaser, an Asia expert at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the United States’ and European Union’s strong warnings have so far paid off.
‘China has been repeatedly warned that if it does so, it would suffer serious consequences. So far, it appears that the Chinese have not. It’s possible that the Chinese had prepared to give military support but then decided against it,’ she stated
Officials in the United States, on the other hand, are concerned about China’s failure to criticise Russia’s actions in Ukraine, as well as what they claim is its persistent parroting of Russian falsehoods about the country’s intervention.
On April 21, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman claimed Beijing has ‘repeatedly drawn false equivalencies’ between Russia’s aggression and Ukraine’s self-defense efforts.
‘Let’s be clear, China is already doing things that aren’t helping this issue,’ she continued.
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