Travel during China’s Golden Week holiday is set to hit its lowest in years

Analysts predict that travel during China’s Golden Week vacation, which starts on Saturday, will be at its lowest level in years as COVID-19 fears prompt recommendations for people to stay in their towns and avoid travel, while economic difficulties restrain expenditure.

The week, which includes one of the longest stretches of public holidays and commemorates the establishment of modern China in 1949, is a leading indicator of consumer demand in the second-largest economy in the world since it coincides with a high in travel and spending.

Travel has begun to become more accessible as more nations choose to coexist with COVID-19, but China’s tourism industry has collapsed as a result of the government’s choice to intensify its zero-Covid strategy with severe restrictions, like city-wide lockdowns.

‘It is not realistic to hold high hopes for tourism this year,’ said Liu Simin, an official of the tourism arm of the China Society for Futures Studies, a research institute based in Beijing.

It would be a ‘very fantastic’ outcome if travel this holiday season was half as popular as it was in 2019 and expenditure was between 30% and 40% higher than it was prior to the pandemic, he continued.

According to estimates made by Reuters using official statistics, Liu’s prediction of a halving in the number of journeys would result in the worst total in a decade.

China’s Golden Week travel and spending have not reached the peaks of 2019, which had 782 million trips and 650 billion yuan ($90 billion) in tourism revenue.