Russia dominated in the Arctic, NATO allies on alertWestern space agencies use the world’s largest satellite ground station, located on the Svalbard archipelago off the coast of Norway, to collect important signals from polar-orbiting spacecraft. One of two fiber-optic cables on the Arctic seafloor connecting Svalbard to the mainland was cut in January. Norway was compelled to rely on a backup connection.
Another cable, deployed by a Norwegian research centre to monitor activity on the Arctic seafloor, was ripped away in April 2021.
In response to the ruptures, Norway’s defence director Eirik Kristoffersen told Reuters, ‘This could have happened by accident. However, the Russians have the ability to cut wires.’
He was speaking broadly and provided no evidence of deliberate damage, but months later, in September, saboteurs caused major leaks to suddenly erupt on the Baltic Sea floor in gas pipelines from Russia to Europe. The Russian Ministry of Defense did not respond to a request for comment.
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brings an end to a post-Cold War era of low tension and cooperation, such events highlight how difficult it is for states to monitor their own waters – particularly in the Arctic, an ocean one and a half times the size of the United States, where satellites are critical to detecting and monitoring activity in real time.
NATO allies and Russia have increased military exercises in the region in recent years; in September, Chinese and Russian warships conducted a joint exercise in the Bering Sea. In October, Norway raised its military alert level.
However, the West lags behind Russia in terms of military presence.
Russia has rebuilt tens of Arctic Soviet-era military outposts, modernised its navy, and developed new hypersonic missiles meant to bypass US sensors and defences since 2005.
According to four Arctic specialists, catching up with Russia’s military in the region would take at least ten years.
‘The Arctic is currently a dark area on the map,’ said Ketil Olsen, who heads Andoeya Space, a Norwegian state-controlled company that tests new military and surveillance technologies and launches research rockets.
‘It’s huge, and there aren’t many civilian surveillance resources.’
General Glen VanHerck, the commander of US Northern Command, told a Senate hearing in March that the US needs stronger Arctic ‘domain awareness’ to identify and handle Russian and Chinese capabilities to launch advanced missiles and destroy communications infrastructure. The United States pledged to improve early warning and surveillance systems in the Arctic in a Pentagon strategy document released in October, but the timing of the anticipated modernization is uncertain.
Simultaneously, rapidly rising temperatures are causing concerns for some US military installations built on permafrost foundations that are melting. According to the Pentagon, coastal erosion could have an influence on US radar facilities.
According to US officials and military analysts, there are few risks in the near term: In conventional forces, the West is far stronger than Russia, and Russia’s modest success in Ukraine highlighted gaps that many in the West had not anticipated.
According to Kristoffersen, Russia’s military operations are currently concentrated mostly on Ukraine, leaving ‘extremely minimal strength of soldiers on the army side’ in the Arctic Kola Peninsula, which houses its Northern Fleet navy and nuclear submarines.
US missile defences are meant to deter a limited rogue state assault, and the US has expressed confidence in its capacity to deter a nuclear attack by Russia or China. Insufficient visibility in the Arctic, on the other hand, might limit US response time in a crisis, which VanHerck and other officials want to prevent.
‘You can’t protect against what you can’t see or determine,’ VanHerck told the Senate.
Police investigating the Norwegian cable ruptures examined the crews of neighbouring Russian fishing trawlers, but terminated the investigations without charging due to a lack of evidence; the government stated it accelerated a planned upgrading of the backup line.
If a sabotage attack occurred in Norway, it would be impossible to prosecute anyone culpable, according to Hedvig Moe, deputy head of Norway’s PST police security branch. ‘In our world, we term it a deniable attack,’ she explained.
‘NATO is strengthening its presence in the Arctic with more contemporary capabilities,’ said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, according to Reuters. ‘Of course, this is in response to Russia’s actions. They have significantly increased their presence… and as a result, we must also increase our presence.’
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