After four consecutive years of normal and above-normal monsoon rains, India is likely to experience a rainfall deficit in 2023, with a 20% chance of drought, according to private weather forecasting agency Skymet on Monday. The weather service said in its monsoon forecast for 2023 that there is a 40% chance that the upcoming season will be ‘below normal,’ a 25% chance that it will be ‘normal,’ a 15% chance that it will be ‘above normal,’ and no chance of excessive rains. It predicted a poor monsoon in 2023 in an earlier forecast in January, which it has now confirmed. The private forecaster predicts a rain deficit in the northern and central parts of the country, with Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra experiencing insufficient rains during the core monsoon months of July and August.
The agricultural bowl of north India, which includes Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, is expected to receive less rain than usual during the second half of the season. According to Skymet MD Jatin Singh, the return of El Nino, which is associated with heat and dryness in the Asian region, may portend a weaker monsoon this year. However, the weather service noted that when sufficiently strong, the Indian Ocean Dipole (a climate condition) could steer the monsoon and negate the negative effects of El Nino.
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