A new study by health intelligence firm Airfinity Ltd has warned that the world could face another pandemic similar to COVID-19 within the next 10 years. The London-based company has claimed that there is a 27.5% probability of this happening due to various factors such as climate change, increasing international travel, and population growth, as well as the threat posed by zoonotic diseases. However, the firm has also pointed out that vaccine rollout and pandemic preparedness could play a crucial role in reducing fatalities.
If vaccines are administered within 100 days of a new pathogen’s discovery, the chance of a deadly pandemic would drop to 8.1%, according to the study. Airfinity has stated that a mutation of an avian flu type that transmits from human to human could kill as many as 15,000 people in a single day in the UK in the worst-case scenario.
Airfinity is an independent health intelligence firm that uses real-time data to track and predict population-level disease outcomes. Its website mentions the lack of vaccines for high-risk pathogens such as Zika, MERS, and Marburg virus. The study emphasizes the urgent need for new and data-driven pandemic preparedness measures, as high-risk pathogens are unlikely to be detected before it is too late.
The firm also warns of the potential rapid spread of the H5N1 bird flu strain, which has been detected in birds and mammals, raising concerns among scientists and governments that the virus may mutate in ways that could make it easier to spread.
Airfinity’s CEO and co-founder, Rasmus Bech Hansen, has stated that a robust pandemic preparedness system is the world’s insurance against a COVID-19-like pandemic or something even worse. The study predicts that the likelihood of a pandemic as deadly as COVID-19 in the next 10 years could be 71% less if countermeasures are put in place.
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