The weather service confirmed on Friday that most portions of India, with the exception of the north western region, will receive normal rainfall this monsoon season. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) released its second long-term forecast for the southwest monsoon 2023, stating that El Nino is likely, but an India Ocean weather phenomenon known as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will mitigate its impact on monsoon rainfall in India. Last month, the IMD projected typical precipitation. This year has El Nino and a good IOD. El Nino’s influence in central India was projected to be offset by positive IOD. But in the case of northwest India, that may not be the case, the IMD stated on Friday. Rainfall will be normal to above-average in most areas of south peninsular India, some areas of east-central India, and many areas of northeast and extreme north India. However, several places in north-west India, west-central India, northern parts of peninsular India, and along the Himalayan foothills may get below-average rainfall. Furthermore, except in some areas such as south Karnataka and northern Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, and Ladakh, the month of June may not provide adequate precipitation. The IMD forecasts seasonal rainfall at 96% of the long-term average (87%) with a 5% margin of error. As a result, the seasonal rainfall for this year is expected to be around 83 cm. Skymet, a private weather forecasting company, predicted a below-average monsoon for the forthcoming season.
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