The southwest monsoon is set to make further progress into the southern peninsula and eastern parts of India starting from Sunday, following a delayed onset over Kerala. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued predictions of heavy rains in isolated areas of Kerala on Thursday. Alongside this, a high tide warning has been issued, and fishermen are advised to avoid venturing into the sea until Sunday.
According to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the Director General of IMD, Cyclone Biparjoy has detached itself from the monsoonal flow and will not affect the progress of the seasonal rainfall system. Mohapatra explained that if the cyclone had moved northwest towards Oman, it could have had an impact on the monsoonal flow. However, the cyclone’s presence over the southeast Arabian Sea has actually aided the progress of the monsoon by strengthening the cross-equatorial flow.
Favorable conditions are developing for the further advancement of the southwest monsoon over parts of the south peninsula, eastern India, and adjoining areas between June 18 and 21. Initially, Cyclone Biparjoy’s presence in the Arabian Sea caused a delay and reduced intensity of the monsoon onset by drawing away moisture and convection.
While the southwest monsoon reached Kerala on June 8, later than the normal date of June 1, research suggests that a delayed onset over Kerala does not necessarily imply a delay in the monsoon’s arrival over northwest India. The IMD had previously stated that India can expect normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, despite the evolving El Nino conditions. El Nino, characterized by Pacific Ocean warming near South America, is generally associated with weakened monsoon winds and dry weather in India. This year’s El Nino conditions follow three consecutive La Nina years, which typically bring good rainfall during the monsoon season.
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