The global mean temperature breaches the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark for the first time

For the first time, the average global temperature has surpassed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold, which is the target set by the United Nations to mitigate climate disruptions on Earth.

Previously, global temperatures had exceeded pre-industrial levels multiple times, but those instances were primarily observed in winter and spring when deviations are more pronounced.

This is the first occurrence of the global mean temperature surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius during the summer season.

The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) tweeted on Thursday, stating, “Global mean temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees threshold during the first days of June. Monitoring how often and for how long these breaches occur is more important than ever, if we are to avoid more severe consequences of the climate crisis.”

The Paris Agreement, which became effective in 2016, established long-term goals to guide countries in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting the global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius in this century, with a further target of 1.5 degrees Celsius.

However, the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement primarily focus on long-term warming trends, considering global temperatures over an average period of 20 to 30 years. The agreement does not specifically address daily or annual global temperatures.

In May, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a report indicating a 66 percent probability that the annual average global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.

Unlike climate projections by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which are based on future greenhouse gas emissions, the WMO’s predictions rely on long-range weather forecasts.

The WMO anticipates that due to the regular occurrence of El Niño, there is a strong likelihood of periods within the next 12 months during which the global-mean air temperature will exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The report also highlights a 98 percent probability that at least one of the next five years, as well as the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record. Additionally, there is a 32 percent chance that the five-year mean will surpass the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold established in the Paris Agreement.