Recent media reports have highlighted a study published in the journal Nature, which underscores the alarming consequences of climate change. The study suggests that as global temperatures rise, high-altitude regions will experience a shift from snowfall to rain, leading to intensified precipitation and an increased risk of landslides and floods.
Unlike earlier research, this study delves into the breakdown of extreme precipitation, distinguishing between snow and rain. This distinction is significant because rainfall tends to have more adverse effects on human lives. The research, led by Mohammed Ombadi from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, reveals that with every one degree Celsius increase in global temperature, higher elevations can anticipate a 15 percent surge in extreme rainfall.
This increase is nearly double the previous estimates for combined rain and snow events. The findings specifically apply to regions situated above approximately 2,000 meters or 6,500 feet in elevation. It is noteworthy that about a quarter of the world’s population resides in mountainous areas or downstream from them. While landslides predominantly impact local areas, floods have more widespread consequences for downstream communities.
Furthermore, the study highlights that increased rainfall also exacerbates soil erosion, posing risks to agricultural lands, natural ecosystems, and intensifying the hazards of floods and landslides. These threats compound the challenges posed by melting glaciers in mountain ranges and river valleys.
Dr. Ombadi and his team analyzed historical data from 1950 to 2019 and incorporated climate change projections until the end of the 21st century. They focused on temperate and Arctic regions in the Northern Hemisphere due to limited data availability from the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Through modeling various global warming scenarios, the researchers consistently observed a rise in extreme rainfall for each degree of warming.
Interestingly, the study found that the increase in extreme rainfall was more pronounced at higher elevations. The relationship between rising temperatures and precipitation was not linear. Different mountain ranges in the Northern Hemisphere exhibited slight variations in the risk of extreme rainfall, which scientists are still working to comprehend.
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