China’s dominance in naval power raises concerns for US navy

A recent briefing slide from the US Navy has highlighted a worrisome disparity between China and the United States in terms of shipbuilding capacity and naval force sizes. Data compiled by the Office of Naval Intelligence reveals that China’s shipbuilders are more than 200 times more capable than those in the United States when it comes to producing surface warships and submarines. This raises concerns about the US Navy’s ability to counter Chinese fleets and maintain its forces in potential high-end conflicts.

The slide depicts a stark contrast in shipbuilding capacity between the two countries. China’s shipyards have a capacity of approximately 23.25 million tonnes, while the United States has less than 100,000 tonnes. China’s shipbuilding capacity is at least 232 times greater than that of the United States. Additionally, the slide highlights that China’s naval production constitutes over 70% of its overall national shipbuilding revenue, whereas the United States’ naval production is estimated to be around 95%.

The briefing slide also includes projected battle force sizes for the US Navy and the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) from 2020 to 2035. In 2020, the PLAN had 355 battle force ships, while the US Navy had 296. By 2035, the gap is expected to widen significantly, with China projected to have 475 battle force ships compared to the United States’ 305 to 317.

China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy is already the world’s largest naval fleet in terms of total vessels, and it continues to acquire modern and capable designs, including aircraft carriers. During a congressional hearing in February, Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro expressed concerns about China’s shipyard capacity, recognizing it as a significant threat. He highlighted that China possesses 13 shipyards, with some individual shipyards having more capacity than all of the United States’ shipyards combined. This disparity in shipyard capacity has a profound impact on the ability to sustain ships.

The circulating briefing slide underscores the importance of shipyard capacity by noting that over 50 dry docks are capable of accommodating an aircraft carrier. China is actively expanding its carrier fleets, demonstrating their focus on developing yards capable of supporting larger surface ships and submarines.

The US Navy acknowledges the limitations of the slide, stating that it is not a definitive data set and should be considered a living document. A spokesperson from the US Navy clarified that the slide was developed by the Office of Naval Intelligence using publicly available sources to provide context and trends on China’s shipbuilding capacity, rather than being an in-depth analysis of the People’s Republic of China’s commercial shipbuilding industry.

The widening gap in naval power between China and the United States raises concerns about the US Navy’s ability to counter Chinese ambitions and maintain a competitive edge.