The UK Health Security Agency warns that London is standing at risk of a major measles outbreak

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued a warning that London is at risk of a significant measles outbreak, which could result in tens of thousands of hospitalizations.

According to the UKHSA’s latest analysis, if there is an outbreak, London could experience between 40,000 and 160,000 measles cases, due to suboptimal MMR vaccination rates. Experts have cautioned that such an outbreak could lead to dozens of deaths and thousands of hospitalizations.

Dr. Vanessa Saliba, a consultant epidemiologist at the UKHSA, emphasized the seriousness of measles and the potential complications, especially in young children and individuals with weakened immune systems. She stated, “Due to longstanding suboptimal vaccine uptake, there is now a very real risk of seeing big outbreaks in London.”

Official data published on Friday revealed a steady rise in measles cases this year, indicating a resurgence of the illness. Between June 30 and January 1, there were 128 reported cases of measles, compared to 54 cases in the entire year of 2022. Sixty-six percent of the cases were detected in London, although cases have been reported from all regions.

Measles can cause severe illness, with an estimated 20-40% of infected children requiring hospitalization, according to the UKHSA. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that one to two in 1,000 infected children will die from measles, and a larger number will experience serious complications, such as deafness and intellectual disabilities.

Professor Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, expressed agreement with the UKHSA’s concerns, stating that an outbreak of this scale could lead to “dozens of deaths.”

He emphasized the high infectiousness of the measles virus and the significant risk it poses, particularly to children under five years old. Hunter also highlighted the importance of vaccine uptake and warned that once the vaccination rate falls, herd immunity cannot be relied upon to protect unvaccinated individuals, especially in London where the vaccination rate is approaching a critical point.