The southwest monsoon is on track for a historically prolonged dry period due to the increasing influence of El Nino. This has resulted in a significant deficiency in monsoon rainfall during the first half of August, causing a nationwide rain deficit of 6 percent. In contrast, by July 31, there had been a surplus of 6 percent in monsoon rainfall.
El Nino weather patterns are known for causing weaker monsoons in India due to higher sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The Indian Meteorological Department has noted an unprecedented stretch of 11 consecutive days of dry weather in the central parts of India, which represents the overall monsoon conditions in the country. Experts predict that this dry spell is expected to persist for an additional 3 to 4 days.
Since August 4, the core monsoon zone region has experienced notably low daily average rainfall, with the standard rainfall anomaly being less than one percent. Similar deviations from normal rainfall were observed briefly in the early months of June and July this monsoon season. India typically witnesses around 110 days of an active and normal southwest monsoon, out of which an average of 11 days constitutes a dry spell. Extending beyond this 11-day period is an unusual occurrence.
Dr. Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, former secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, has pointed out that experiencing an uninterrupted dry spell for over 11 days is an exceptional phenomenon. This prolonged dry spell poses significant challenges for the agricultural sector and the overall water supply in affected regions.
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