August 2023 marked the driest and warmest month on record for the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) since 1901. The month witnessed an unprecedented number of dry spell days, leading to a substantial rainfall deficit that cannot be compensated by the anticipated September rain. This year’s rainfall shortfall pushes the Indian monsoon below normal levels, impacting agriculture and exacerbating inflation for consumers across the nation.
Rainfall deficiency in August reached historic lows, registering a deficit of -36%, contributing to an all-India deficit of -10% since June 1. This dry spell persisted across central and southern peninsular regions as well, setting new records for low rainfall since 1901. A combination of factors, including the El Nino effect, unfavorable Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), and a reduced number of low-pressure weather events, contributed to the exceptionally dry August. With just 162.7 mm of rainfall, last month stands as the driest August on record, a significant departure from previous benchmarks set in 2005, 1920, and 2009.
The adverse impact of August’s meager rainfall extends to crop-sowing and the cultivation of standing crops, which require more water for sustenance. This shortfall is expected to reduce yields across kharif crops, including paddy. In response to potential food inflation, India has imposed export bans and duties on rice varieties. Approximately one-third of the country’s 36 sub-divisions are grappling with rainfall deficits, affecting regions such as eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal, Kerala, Lakshadweep, and more.
Despite increased kharif sowing due to favorable July rainfall, August’s scarcity has jeopardized these crops. While the northern and eastern parts of the country received heavier rainfall, aiding crop-sowing, the IMD has predicted a normal monsoon for September, offering a glimmer of hope for the agricultural sector.
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