Report suggests Modi likely to return in 2024, despite inflation and opposition unity

Despite a decade of anti-incumbency sentiments under the same government, an analysis in a report suggests that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Narendra Modi is still poised for a potential return to power. This is primarily attributed to the NDA’s continued strength in northern states. According to the report from ‘Jefferies,’ a well-known brokerage house, the NDA is expected to secure between 251 to 300 seats in the upcoming elections, in contrast to their current tally of nearly 330 seats. The report downplays the recent opposition unity, suggesting that it will have a limited impact on the NDA’s electoral prospects.

Titled ‘India Politics – The Election Playbook,’ the report also highlights key risk factors that could influence the election outcomes. These factors include anti-incumbency sentiments, the potential for small shifts in vote shares to have a substantial impact on results, and draws parallels with the 2004 election as an example of how unexpected outcomes can occur in Indian politics.