The battle between Biden and Trump for the 2024 US Presidential elections is intensifying, and a recent poll indicates that former President Donald Trump is currently leading.
According to a new Washington Post-ABC poll, the current US President is lagging by 10 percentage points behind his predecessor, Donald Trump. However, experts have criticized the poll’s decision to release these results, labeling it as “ridiculous.”
In their analysis of the poll, The Post noted that “the poll shows Biden trailing Trump by 10 percentage points at this early stage in the election cycle, although the significant margin of Trump’s lead in this survey contradicts other public polls that indicate the general election contest is a virtual dead heat.”
“The discrepancy between this poll and others, as well as the unusual composition of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggests that it is likely an outlier.”
An “outlier” in statistics refers to a data point that significantly deviates from other values within a dataset.
Prominent political pollster Larry Sabato, who directs the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, criticized The Washington Post-ABC for releasing the poll, calling it “ridiculous.” In a message on a social media platform, Sabato urged people to “Ignore the Washington Post-ABC poll.”
“It’s a ridiculous outlier (Trump up 10 over Biden—laughable). My question: How could you even publish a poll so absurd on its face? Will be a lingering embarrassment for you,” he added.
Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The New York Times, also voiced his criticism of the poll. Referring to a previous Post-ABC poll from May, he noted, “It’s really, really hard to release outlying poll results, so you’ve got to give credit to ABC/Post here, but I do have a fairly major quibble with ABC/Post here: if you release consecutive ‘outlying’ poll results—R+7 in May, R+10 today—you don’t get to dismiss your results.”
Despite the skepticism surrounding the poll results, The Guardian reports that Trump, despite facing numerous criminal charges, maintains substantial leads in both national and key state polls. President Biden’s overall approval rating is reported to be just 37 percent, with 56 percent of Americans expressing disapproval of his presidency, according to the Washington Post-ABC poll.
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