The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that the upcoming northeast monsoon, which typically affects five meteorological sub-divisions in South Peninsular India (Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and south-interior Karnataka) between October and December, is expected to be within the normal range. A normal monsoon would imply that these regions may receive rainfall ranging from 88% to 112% of the long-period average of 334.13 mm.
The northeast monsoon is typically initiated by northeasterly winds over the Bay of Bengal and South Peninsular India, leading to rainfall starting in October. Similar to the southwest monsoon that inundates India from June to September, the northeast monsoon is a vital and recurring element of the Indian subcontinent’s climate system.
The forthcoming northeast monsoon holds particular significance for Tamil Nadu’s government, as it grapples with drought conditions. Six districts in the state have already been declared as drought-affected due to significant crop damage caused by insufficient rainfall, particularly from October 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022. To assist more than 1.87 lakh farmers in these drought-affected areas, the state government has sanctioned 181 crore for input subsidy relief assistance.
As for the southwest monsoon season, it concluded with India experiencing “near normal” cumulative rainfall. This was achieved despite the presence of certain positive factors counteracting the effects of El Niño conditions, a climatic phenomenon that can disrupt normal weather patterns.
Overall, a normal northeast monsoon season would be welcomed as it could help mitigate drought conditions in affected regions.
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