An opinion poll published on Saturday suggests that the UK’s opposition Labour Party is on track to secure a resounding victory in the anticipated national election next year.
Most surveys indicate that Labour, which is holding its annual conference in northern England this weekend, enjoys a lead of around 20 points over Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party. However, analysts caution that this lead may be vulnerable.
The Survation poll, conducted for the campaign group 38 Degrees and featured in the Observer newspaper, involved more than 11,000 voters surveyed between September 11 and 25. It then employed a model to predict constituency-level results.
According to its central projection, Labour is expected to secure 420 seats, while the Conservatives are predicted to win 149 seats, and the Liberal Democrats 23 seats. This would give Labour, which has been out of power since 2010, a substantial 190-seat majority in the House of Commons, the lower house of parliament.
The poll estimated a range of 402 to 437 seats for Labour and 132 to 169 seats for the Conservatives. In the last national election in 2019, the Conservatives won 365 seats and Labour 203.
Survation employed a modeling technique known as multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) to derive constituency-level insights. Pollsters using this method had successfully predicted the outcome of the 2017 UK election.
According to the Observer, the projected results indicate that 12 of Sunak’s cabinet ministers, including Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, could lose their seats.
The polling, conducted before the Conservatives’ annual conference this week, found that the most significant concerns for voters in every constituency were the cost-of-living crisis and the state of the National Health Service.
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