The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted the occurrence of cold wave days in the central part of the country from January to March. During this period, the minimum temperature is expected to be above normal. The onset of a cold wave is identified when the minimum temperature drops to 4°C or less, and it is categorized as ‘severe’ when it falls to 2°C or below. For the classification of a cold wave event, these conditions should persist for three consecutive days. The forecast indicates a below-normal occurrence of cold wave days compared to the previous winter.
The anticipated below-normal cold wave days suggest that there will be fewer instances of extreme cold compared to the winter of the previous year, as per the IMD. Additionally, above-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the country, except for specific pockets in the north and northeast regions. Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the Director General of IMD, highlighted that the wheat-growing region in India experienced a rainfall deficit until December. However, he expressed optimism that the deficit would be compensated in the upcoming months with above-normal rainfall, which would benefit the crop.
Interestingly, the temperature trends across the country appear unusual, with minimum temperatures surpassing normal levels while maximum temperatures are lower than usual. Most areas in the northern region are experiencing minimum temperatures that are 2-4°C above normal, while maximum temperatures range from -1°C to -7°C below the normal temperatures. The IMD also mentioned the expectation of El Nino during the northern hemisphere winter of 2023-24, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated in April-June 2024.
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