China’s economy is poised to experience a modest rebound in the fourth quarter, with an expected growth rate of 5.3%, surpassing the third quarter’s 4.9%, according to a Reuters poll.
The anticipated improvement aligns with the government’s growth target, but concerns loom over the economic landscape in 2024. Several challenges, including a protracted property downturn and subdued consumer confidence, contribute to the uncertainty despite various policy interventions.
While the annual GDP growth is projected to be 5.2% for 2023, influenced in part by the low-base effect resulting from stringent COVID-19 lockdowns in the previous year, the overall economic momentum is marked by a sluggish quarterly growth rate. The forecast indicates a fourth-quarter growth of 1.0%, representing a slowdown from the 1.3% pace observed in the July-September period.
This points to persistent weaknesses in the economy, despite policy measures implemented to stimulate economic activity. The concerns surrounding a prolonged property downturn and muted consumer confidence continue to cast a shadow on the overall economic outlook for China in the coming year.
As China navigates these challenges, policymakers will likely face the task of implementing targeted measures to address specific issues affecting different sectors of the economy. The delicate balance between stimulating growth and managing risks remains a critical consideration for sustaining a stable and resilient economic trajectory in the face of ongoing uncertainties.
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