December witnessed an 80% deficit in precipitation in the western Himalayan region, followed by an unusually dry January, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) pointing to the absence of active western disturbances as the cause. These disturbances originate in the Mediterranean region and usually bring unseasonal rainfall to northwest India. The persistent layer of fog over the plains in the region since December 25 is also attributed to the lack of these disturbances, as per the IMD’s analysis.
The repercussions of this precipitation deficit are expected to impact freshwater availability in the Himalayan region, adversely affecting horticulture and agricultural production. Sonam Lotus, the head of the meteorological center in Leh, Ladakh, expressed concern about the unusually warm temperatures in Ladakh and Kashmir during peak winter, leading to early blooming of crops.
Raihana Habib Kanth, Dean (Agriculture) at Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, highlighted that the Chillai Kalan period’s snowfall (December 21 to January 29) serves as a crucial freshwater source before the southwest monsoon. The prolonged dry spell has led to reduced water levels in rivers and streams in the region.
A report authored by IMD scientists Krishna Mishra, Naresh Kumar, and RK Jenamani indicates that maximum temperatures over the northern plains have been 5-8 degrees Celsius below normal since December 29. Minimum temperatures also dropped below 4 degrees Celsius at many stations in the region from January 12 to 17, with a brief respite on January 7-8 due to a western disturbance.
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