After experiencing one of the driest and coldest Januarys since 1901, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is now forecasting a wetter and warmer February. The anticipated higher temperatures could impact the main rabi crop, particularly wheat, which is sensitive to warmer climates during the flowering stage. The colder environment during this stage is crucial for the creation and shaping of the crop.
January was declared the fourth coldest and ninth driest month since 1901 by the IMD. Prolonged fog and lower cloud conditions reduced the intensity of the cold wave. However, the IMD predicts above-normal rainfall for February across the country, excluding most parts of south peninsular India. In north India, including key wheat-growing regions, above-normal rainfall is expected, along with above-normal minimum temperatures for most parts of the country. The El Nino conditions over the Equatorial Pacific are also anticipated to weaken by the end of April, potentially boosting the monsoon.
The temperatures and rainfall during January 2024 were the ninth lowest since 1901, with significant rainfall deficits across India. The Northwest region recorded a 91% deficit, while other regions experienced deficits as well. Despite a wetter January in the South peninsula, prolonged fog and low cloud cover over the Indo-Gangetic Plain reduced cold wave conditions but led to persistent cold days, resulting in isolated areas experiencing six reported deaths in Bihar due to the cold wave. IMD’s data also highlights unusual temperature patterns in January, with minimum temperatures above normal and maximum temperatures below normal on most days.
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