The Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA), in response to the increasing temperatures leading up to the summer season, has collaborated with two organizations to develop future heat projections for the state. Recently, KSDMA organized a consultation workshop involving various stakeholders such as government departments, agencies, and NGOs specializing in climate-related data analysis. With assistance from the Geo Hazard Society and the Wood Well Climate Research Centre, KSDMA aims to conduct a comprehensive study to establish average threshold temperatures across different geographic regions and sectors like agriculture, water resources, transportation, and energy.
The projections indicate that most areas in Kerala are expected to experience a temperature rise of 0.5°C in the coming years (2020-2040), with further increases ranging between 1 and 1.5°C by the mid-century (2040-2060), depending on emission levels. During discussions, experts suggested that refining the projections could be achieved by employing a smaller ensemble of high-resolution models to enhance accuracy. Wood Well, utilizing statistical downscaling techniques, analyzed historical and future climate data from 1970 to 2060, with KSDMA providing observed data from Kerala for comparison and analysis purposes.
Woodwell has furnished statewide heat projection maps covering recent and future average time periods as specified by KSDMA, encompassing monthly averages for each warming level during the 20-year periods (2020-2040, 2040-2060). Additionally, a workshop was convened to gather feedback from the scientific community, state departments, and academic institutions actively engaged in climate-related research and data analysis.
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