Astronomers calculate the threat Apophis, the most dangerous known asteroid, poses on Earth

Astronomers have now computed the potential threat posed by Apophis, once deemed the most perilous known asteroid, to Earth.

For years, scientists regarded Apophis as the most menacing asteroid due to its slight probability of colliding with Earth in 2029 or, failing that, in 2036.

Based on the most precise observations of its orbit, Apophis is projected to pass within approximately 40,000 kilometers of Earth in 2029. Nonetheless, it will not impact our planet unless an unforeseen collision with another passing object alters its trajectory.

Although the 1,110-foot asteroid would not cause extinction events like those of the dinosaurs, it could still result in substantial devastation, prompting ongoing vigilance and intrigue among scientists.

On April 13, 2029 (Friday the 13th), Apophis is expected to be at a distance of 37,399 kilometers (23,240 miles) from Earth.

However, a slight nudge from another object between now and then could potentially alter its course. For instance, NASA’s DART mission successfully redirected the asteroid Dimorphos, fundamentally altering its shape. Benjamin Hyatt, a student at Waterloo University, and Professor Paul Wiegert from Western University calculated the trajectories of 1.3 million known asteroids in the Solar System.

Hyatt remarked, “Considering Apophis’s close encounter with Earth, there is a theoretical risk that a deviation from its current trajectory could bring it closer to colliding with our planet. Theoretically, an impact from another asteroid could induce such a deviation, prompting us to explore this scenario, however improbable.”

The research team monitored the movements of these celestial bodies over the coming years to determine if any would intersect with Apophis. Fortunately, their findings indicate a negligible likelihood of Apophis colliding with another celestial object.

“We simulated the trajectories of all known asteroids using an intricate computer model of our Solar System and assessed the potential of such an improbable event,” Wiegert explained.

Despite the absence of imminent danger from Apophis, scientists continue to study it. The ongoing OSIRIS-APEX mission, formerly known as OSIRIS-REx, investigates the asteroid, building upon its previous exploration of Bennu, the current most threatening asteroid. OSIRIS-APEX even retrieved a substantial sample from Bennu.

“Asteroid Apophis has captivated our species since its discovery in 2004, representing the first credible threat from an asteroid to our planet,” Wiegert remarked. “Even though we now know it will safely miss us, astronomers remain vigilant. It’s the asteroid we simply can’t stop monitoring,” he concluded.