Recent research reveals that winter storms in northern India are arriving later in the year than they did 70 years ago, posing a heightened threat of heavy flooding and endangering the water supply for millions. According to Kieran Hunt, a co-author of the study published in Weather and Climate Dynamics, the delayed onset of snowfall in areas like Kashmir is particularly concerning for the 750 million people who depend on these winter snows for water resources in the Indus and upper Ganges basins.
The study highlights a 60% increase in the frequency of cyclonic storms, known as western disturbances, during the summer months from April to July. Traditionally, these disturbances bring essential snow to the Himalayas during winter, ensuring a steady supply of irrigation water for downstream agriculture. However, the shifting pattern now sees these storms arriving later in the pre-monsoon heat, resulting in heavy rainfall instead of snow and raising the risk of destructive flooding.
Researchers attribute this change to global warming and alterations in the subtropical jet stream, which guides western disturbances. The weakened temperature contrast between the equator and poles due to global warming and the rapid warming of the Himalayan Plateau are cited as contributing factors. Consequently, the jet stream remains at lower latitudes for longer periods, allowing more storms to impact North India post-winter.
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