New Delhi: Retail inflation in India, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may decline to a five-month low of 4.9% in March. A poll of 20 economists revealed this. Retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index was at 5.09% in February. In March 2022, CPI inflation was at 5.66%.
The forecasts for March CPI print range from 4.57-5.10%. The National Statistical Office (NSO) will release the March CPI inflation data on Friday.
‘We expect March CPI to come lower than February amid continued softness in core inflation and pass through of Rs 100 cut in LPG cylinder prices,’ said Garima Kapoor, economist, Elara Securities.
On March 8, the government had announced `100 per cylinder cut in LPG prices. This is expected to keep the ‘fuel and light’ group, carrying at 6.84% weight in CPI, in the deflationary zone for the seventh consecutive month in March. The government had also cut the retail prices of petrol and diesel by `2-a-litre, effective March 15. This would also aid in easing the headline CPI rate.
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The group of economists also predict core inflation to ease further to 3.2% in March from a series low of 3.3% in February. The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) say that the rise in gold and silver prices curbed the decline in the fall of core inflation further during March.
CMIE has estimated inflation in the prices of gold and silver to have risen to 14.2% and 13% respectively in March, from 10.2% and 8.2% in February.
Data from the Department of Consumer Affairs showed, prices of both rice and pulses increased by 0.4% on month during March, but that of wheat declined by 0.4%. Potatoes’ price soared 6.1% in March, while prices of tomato and onion declined sequentially.
Most economists have projected CPI inflation in April-June to average around 5-5.2%, which is 10-30 basis points higher than the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 4.9% for the June quarter.
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is a measure of the average change in the price of goods at a wholesale level or in the wholesale market. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a price index that calculates price changes of goods and services that a consumer has to pay in the retail market. The monetary police of Reserve Bank of India is made after reviewing the CPI.
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