A cyclone is expected to develop in the next 3-4 days over the south Bay of Bengal due to favourable ocean and atmospheric conditions, according to experts. The sea surface temperature (SST) in the region is 2-3°C warmer than usual, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a band of clouds moving eastward, is also contributing to these favourable conditions. Climate experts highlight that high SST provides the necessary heat and moisture for cyclone formation, while the MJO offers the rotational trigger.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed the formation of a low-pressure area around May 22, which could evolve into a depression by May 24. Although the IMD has not yet declared the formation of a cyclone, a senior scientist at the IMD mentioned that it could potentially develop into Cyclone ‘Remal’ moving towards the east coast. However, the advancing southwest monsoon wind might restrict its development, potentially resulting in a monsoon depression with heavy rains rather than a strong cyclone, according to Dr. Roxy Koll, a climate scientist and IPCC lead author.
Vineet Kumar, a research scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, noted that the strengthening monsoon winds in the Bay make a major cyclone unlikely, although a depression is expected. The southwest monsoon has advanced into parts of the Maldives, Comorin area, south Bay of Bengal, Nicobar Islands, and south Andaman Sea as of May 19, almost a week ahead of schedule. Additionally, the IMD warned of potential flash floods in southern Kerala, Mahe, and southern Tamil Nadu due to heavy rainfall from existing cyclonic circulation. Heatwave conditions are also likely to persist in northwest, east, and central India over the next five days.
Post Your Comments