In its updated long-range forecast for the upcoming Southwest monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted above-normal rainfall for central and south peninsular India, and normal rainfall for northwest India. However, the eastern and northeast regions, as well as northern parts including Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, are likely to experience below-normal rainfall.
The IMD specified that the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is expected to be ‘above normal’ in central and south peninsular India, exceeding 106% of the long-period average. Northwest India is anticipated to receive ‘normal’ rainfall, ranging from 92% to 108% of the long-period average. In contrast, northeast India and certain northern areas are projected to have ‘below normal’ rainfall, less than 94% of the average. This forecast suggests that India’s core monsoon zone, which relies heavily on rain-fed agriculture, will benefit from above-normal rainfall.
Additionally, the IMD has predicted the monsoon’s onset over Kerala on May 31. An unusual development this year is that the Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon may arrive earlier than the Arabian Sea branch, driven by cyclone Remal, which has accelerated monsoon winds.
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