As July concludes, India is experiencing overall excess monsoon rainfall, with the country receiving 9-10% more rain than average for the month, bringing the season’s total to 2% above normal. However, the rainfall distribution has been uneven, with central and southern regions receiving ample rain while the northwest and eastern parts face significant deficits. Data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) up to July 30 shows that 36% of India’s districts—267 out of 742—have reported deficient or ‘large deficient’ rainfall, including all districts in Jharkhand and Gangetic Bengal, 33 out of 38 in Bihar, 19 out of 22 in Punjab and Haryana, five out of nine in Delhi, nine out of 12 in Himachal Pradesh, and 15 out of 20 in Jammu and Kashmir.
Among these deficit districts, 232 have experienced rainfall deficits ranging from 20% to 59% below normal, while 35 districts have seen deficits of 60% or more. Conversely, 245 districts reported normal rainfall, and 230 districts received excess or large excess rainfall. The rainfall map highlights two main deficit regions: one in eastern India and another in the northwest, both suffering from consistent shortages exacerbated by poor rainfall in June, which ended with an 11% nationwide deficit. Additionally, the monsoon trough has remained south of its usual position, benefiting central India but leaving areas like northwest India, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Gangetic Bengal with deficits. Veteran meteorologist M Rajeevan attributes the poor rainfall in these areas to the delayed monsoon trough and a delayed La Niña formation affecting the monsoon’s strength.
Experts anticipate a lull in August as the monsoon has been active for over a month. Specific regions like Haryana, including Gurgaon, have faced significant rainfall deficits, with only six out of 22 districts meeting normal levels in July. The IMD attributes this to the delayed La Niña, impacting monsoon patterns. On a positive note, Madhya Pradesh has seen a marked improvement, reducing deficit districts from 18 on July 11 to just five by July 25, with a 7% surplus in rainfall. Forecasts suggest that the monsoon may end close to 110% of normal levels this year, indicating a strong finish. Ongoing monitoring and adaptive measures will be crucial to addressing regional imbalances and supporting agricultural and water management efforts across the country.
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