India sees 5th highest August rainfall since 2001; IMD forecasts ‘above normal’ rains for September

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted ‘above normal’ rainfall for most parts of the country in September, continuing the trend seen in August. However, regions like Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, and parts of Himachal Pradesh and Punjab are expected to experience extremely heavy rainfall, which could lead to potential floods and landslides. August recorded 16% more rainfall than usual, marking the fifth-highest August rainfall since 2001 and the 29th highest since 1901. Despite this, the month also saw the highest average minimum temperature and the fourth highest average mean temperature since 1901, a result of uneven rainfall distribution across different regions.

While the overall monsoon season from June to September is expected to close with ‘above normal’ rainfall, certain areas may experience ‘below normal’ rainfall in September, including north Bihar, northeast Uttar Pradesh, and parts of northeast and south Peninsular India. The favorable rainfall in core monsoon zones has positively impacted Kharif crop sowing, suggesting a potential increase in foodgrain output this year. The good monsoon rains are crucial for maintaining adequate soil moisture and water levels in reservoirs, essential for both Kharif and Rabi crops, setting the stage for a promising agricultural season.

The IMD has also discussed the potential impact of the La Nina phenomenon, which is expected to develop by the end of September. However, it is unlikely to affect the current monsoon season, which may be nearing its withdrawal phase by then. La Nina typically weakens the northeast monsoon, particularly in southeast India, but the IMD notes that it is too early to predict its impact on the upcoming winter monsoon. The heavy rainfall in August was primarily due to six low-pressure systems, with some intensifying into deeper systems, leading to more active monsoon days than usual. The IMD also predicts ‘above-normal’ temperatures for most regions in September, with exceptions in northwest India and the southern peninsula.