India has experienced an overall above-normal southwest monsoon (SWM) rainfall of 107% from June to September. With a recorded total of 918 mm of rain, compared to the normal of 868.8 mm, this year’s monsoon has kept the Gangetic plain relatively dry while providing ample moisture to the arid regions. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) tracks the SWM period from June 1 to September 30, and this season has seen notable occurrences of depressions and low-pressure areas.
Despite the significant rainfall, scientists remain puzzled by the factors driving this year’s bountiful monsoon, especially given the absence of the expected La Niña phenomenon, which typically indicates a wetter monsoon season. The IMD had forecasted the emergence of La Niña during the latter half of the monsoon, but it did not materialize, while the El Niño conditions were neutral. Historically, El Niño is linked to poor monsoon seasons, while La Niña is associated with abundant rainfall.
Additionally, an unusual pattern in rainfall distribution has emerged, with four of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions recording deficient rainfall, including Punjab and Arunachal Pradesh. In contrast, arid regions like West Rajasthan experienced record levels of excess rainfall, underscoring the potential impact of climate change on rainfall trends. Furthermore, the SWM’s onset was earlier than usual, while its withdrawal has been delayed, ending later than the average date.
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