Mumbai: India’s real GDP growth for the September quarter is likely to decline to 6.5 per cent due to heavy rains and weaker corporate performance. India based rating agency ICRA said this on its latest assessment. The agency, however, maintained its FY25 growth estimate at 7 per cent.
The RBI is sticking to its estimate of 7.2 per cent growth for the fiscal, but a majority of watchers expect it to be under the 7 per cent figure and many have been revising down in the last few weeks.
‘While government spending and kharif sowing have shown positive trends, the industrial sector, particularly mining and electricity, is expected to slow down. Q2 FY2025 saw tailwinds in terms of a pick-up in capex after the Parliamentary Elections as well as healthy expansion in sowing of major kharif crops. Several sectors faced headwinds on account of heavy rainfall, which affected mining activity, electricity demand and retail footfalls, and a contraction in merchandise exports,’ ICRA’s chief economist Aditi Nayar said.
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Meanwhile, international rating agency, Moody’s Ratings forecasts a 7.2 per cent GDP growth for India in 2024. It also predicted a growth rate of 6.6% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026.
India’s real GDP expanded 6.7 per cent year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024. RBI has projected a GDP growth rate of 7.2%, while government expects it to grow in the range of 6.5%-7%.
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