New Delhi: India’s economic growth rate may slip to a four-year low in 2024-25. The first advance estimates of National Income for 2024-25 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) revealed this.
The gross domestic product (GDP) of India will grow at 6.4% in FY25. This will be the lowest since the Covid year (2020-21) when the country witnessed a negative growth of 5.8 per cent. It was 9.7 per cent in 2021-22; 7 per cent in 2022-23; and 8.2 per cent in the last fiscal ended March 2024.
The first advance estimates of National Income for 2024-25 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) is lower than the 6.6 per cent projected by the Reserve Bank in December 2024. It is also lower than the finance ministry’s initial projection of 6.5-7 per cent.
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The advance estimates will be used in preparation for the Union Budget to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the Lok Sabha on February 1.
The manufacturing sector output is expected to decelerate to 5.3 per cent from a high of 9.9 per cent recorded in the previous fiscal. The services sector, comprising trade, hotels, transport and communications, is estimated to expand at 5.8 per cent against 6.4 per cent in 2023-24. On the other hand, the farm sector is estimated to record a growth of 3.8 per cent in the current fiscal, up from 1.4 per cent in 2023-24.
Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.7 per cent in 2024-25 over the growth rate of 9.6 per cent in 2023-24. According to the data, nominal GDP (GDP at current prices) is estimated to attain a level of Rs 324.11 lakh crore in the year 2024-25 against Rs 295.36 lakh crore in 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 9.7 per cent.
The size of the economy, as per the current estimates, is USD 3.8 trillion (@ Rs 85.7/USD) during 2024-25. Further, the nominal Gross Value Added (GVA) is estimated to attain a level of Rs 292.64 lakh crore in 2024-25 against Rs 267.62 lakh crore in 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 9.3 per cent.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant prices has witnessed a growth rate of 7.3 per cent during 2024-25 over the growth rate of 4 per cent in the previous financial year. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Constant Prices has rebounded to a growth rate of 4.1 per cent compared to the growth rate of 2.5 per cent in the previous fiscal.
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