A study published in The Lancet estimates that by 2050, India could have over 440 million overweight and obese people, making it the second highest in the world after China. Researchers project that the number of overweight and obese adults in India could reach 218 million men and 231 million women. The study, conducted as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, involved experts from the Indian Council of Medical Research. Currently, India has nearly 180 million overweight and obese individuals, with 81 million men and 98 million women affected. Globally, the number is expected to surge to 3.8 billion by 2050, with significant increases in sub-Saharan Africa.
The study also highlights the alarming rise of childhood obesity in India. By 2050, around 16 million boys and 14 million girls aged 5-14 years in India could be overweight, ranking second after China. However, in the 15-24 age group, India is projected to have the highest global burden, with over 22 million men and nearly 17 million women affected. Lead researcher Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) called the obesity epidemic a major societal failure, emphasizing the urgent need for targeted prevention and intervention strategies. The study’s findings align with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent remarks in Mann Ki Baat, where he stressed the importance of addressing obesity for a healthier nation.
Obesity, defined by a body mass index (BMI) over 30, is linked to various health risks, including metabolic disorders, heart disease, bone health issues, fertility complications, and increased cancer risk. However, recent experts have argued that BMI alone is not a reliable health indicator. In January, a Lancet Commission report proposed new diagnostic criteria, introducing ‘clinical obesity’ for cases with obesity-related organ dysfunction and ‘pre-clinical obesity’ for individuals at high health risk without illness. The report suggests incorporating measures like waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio alongside BMI for more accurate obesity assessment and management.