Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has predicted a normal monsoon for India in 2025, estimating seasonal rainfall to be 103% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 868.6 mm during the June–September season. The forecast includes an error margin of ±5%, which still places the rainfall within the normal range of 96% to 104% of LPA. While 80% of the country is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, around 20% might experience below-normal precipitation. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has yet to release its official forecast.
According to Skymet, Western and Southern India are likely to see favorable rainfall, especially the Western Ghats regions including Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, and Goa. Adequate rain is also expected in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, which are part of the core monsoon zone. In contrast, the northeastern states and hill regions in Northern India may receive below-normal rainfall. These predictions are supported by the expectation of a weaker La Niña and a neutral El Niño phase, both of which typically promote stable monsoon conditions.
Skymet also noted a potentially positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which could further support a good monsoon in combination with neutral ENSO conditions. Historically, such a combination has resulted in favorable monsoon outcomes. The agency forecasts the latter half of the monsoon season to be stronger than the early phase, with monthly rainfall predicted at 96% of LPA in June, 102% in July, 108% in August, and 104% in September.
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